Sunday, August 19, 2007

INDIA Shining

It’s been a long and cumbersome journey for one of the world’s largest democracy to cover the span of sixty odd years past its independence since 1947. It grew at an average rate of 3.5 percent from 1950 to 1980, at 6 percent in 1980s and 1990s, around 8 percent after that and at slightly more than 9 percent in the past two years.

Today it is on the verge of becoming the key drivers of the World economy, surpassing the most dominant and unswerving countries of this world.
It’s become a country which cannot go unnoticed, no matter which forum it is.
• It is the 4th largest economy in the world (on the basis of purchase power)
• It has the 12th largest consumer market in the world, forecasted to become the 5th largest by 2025
• The Indian IT-ITES industry is expected to cross $50 billion this fiscal
• It is the fastest growing Mobile Telephony market in the world, with about 6 million monthly additions to the subscriber base
• It has the worlds sixth largest crude oil refining capacity – 2.56 million barrels per day; 3% of the world’s capacity
• Its forex reserves are $214 billion which is equivalent to a years import which was equivalent to a days import in 1991
• It is the youngest country in the world with more than half population (54 percent) 24 years of age and below
• The Market Cap of the Stock Exchange is around INR 34,000 billion (i.e. around 96% of GDP). Bombay Stock Exchange had 7,707 scrips as on June 2007
• SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprise) today have 40% share in industrial output and contribute to 35% of direct exports and 45% of overall exports. India has 3 million plus SME units
• India’s gross national savings rate stands at 32.4% as against 12.9% of US

The fact that India is growing at an excitably fast speed cannot be disputed, however similarly is the rift between the “have’s and have not’s” mounting. The rich are getting richer much faster than the poor.
India needs a growth which is Inclusive and Holistic.
There is one strata of the society which has cars, computers, washing machines, pays through credit cards, and travels by planes; possess all means required for hedonistic living completely oblivious to the contrarian equivalents who struggle hard each day to sustain their existence.
• 60 percent of the people in India belong to the underprivileged category
• India’s population would reach 1.35 billion by 2025
• 65 percent of the labour force is not even matriculate
• Half of children below 5, suffer from malnourishment
• Agriculture contributes less than 25% to GDP which is expected to become 10% by 2015, however more than 60% of the labour force remains dependent on it.
• Out of 100 million children ( in the age group of 6 to 14) worldwide who do not go to school, 20 million live in India


Rural India has a population of 700 million spread across 600,000 villages and hence they contain a mass which cannot be ignored or neglected if we want the absolute development and progress of this country.
Despite the bulk of the population being dependent on agriculture, the production/ output received is overly meager. Last year India had to import 72 lakh tonnes of wheat at very high price.
To boost agriculture we need to get large investments in rural and backward areas and create means for successful agriculture which is not only about farming but also about food processing and its storage. This would also require to be supported by proper channels of water supply with water management methods and irrigation amenities to prevent the farmers from relying on rain for their crops. We need to replace our olden methods of cultivation with technologically advanced methods which would boost the production.
For this the government needs to have more proactive Micro Finance Institutions who would help the farmers for their financial needs through low cost credit.
The levels of ground water is declining by 5 percent every year in the North Western states of Punjab, Haryana, Western UP, parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat and if it is not tackled immediately and pondered upon it may exacerbate the already existing woes of the farmers.
In a situation like this what is needed is superior water management, because we face floods in large parts of the country and then face water scarcity after some time. We need more dams and reservoirs which can hold water for the period when required and can be effectively used.


Only 28% of Indian population lives in towns which is expected to touch around 41 percent by 2030.
2/3rd of urban population is living in small and medium sized cities (less than 1 million population); services and infrastructure in these cities are coming under tremendous strain in terms of housing, infrastructure, transportation, sewage water and other basic services. This would result in a very large chunk of this very rapidly urbanising population to be forced to live in slums and temporary settlements.
An apartment in South Mumbai comes for around Rs 50,000 per square feet, and surprisingly has large number of takers for itself making moolah for the builders. The actual problem is of demand and supply which is pushing up the price, however this should not be interpreted as land scarcity in urban area. The trouble is we are not using land in proper way and also laws such as Rent Act are not allowing authorities to release the land thereby underutilising existing resource and shooting up price.
This problem of enormity if not dealt soon would dilapidate the entire system of these cities which are already struggling with the influx of huge population.


India is the worlds 6th largest consumer of Crude Oil after the US, China, Japan, Russia and Germany. India imports 70 percent of its crude oil needs which is expected to increase to 80 percent over the next decade.
To counter inflation and provide stability from the extremely volatile global oil prices, the government provides huge subsidies on oil which results in enormous loss for the oil companies even though the loss is soothed through the issue of Oil bonds by government.
Today Public sector Oil companies are losing Rs 5.88/lt on petrol and Rs 4.80/lt on diesel which results in a loss of Rs 90 crore per day for the Indian Oil company.
We need to restrain the usage of oil and along with that migrate to the usage of gas at slightly faster pace to shrink our dependency on oil.


India’s public debt to government revenue was 400 percent in 2004, which is about 83 percent of GDP. High government debt implies a significant interest payment which means lesser funds available for development expenditure. It also crowds out private investments because when the government borrows heavily, the private entities are unable to access credit easily or cheaply enough, which in turn impacts growth.
We need to accelerate economic growth by spending in areas of development such as infrastructure, services, education and keep the non-developmental expenses under check which leads to higher stress by raising unproductiveness and also increasing inflation.


20 percent of children not going to school worldwide belong to India.
India needs to focus on its primary education and be true and committed to its mission rather than creating a farcical situation for itself. It needs to establish more primary schools and have better facilitators/ teachers rather than the existing ones who barely turn up. The concerned authorities need to be sterner while dealing with such situations rather than be carried away for electoral reasons.


Based on the number of people finishing high school, India would need 12 to 14 million jobs a year for the next 20 years.
There is disparity in incomes and regional development. Employment in the organised sector is not growing commensurate with the rates of its growth thereby giving rise to jobless growth.
India needs to promote Small and Medium Enterprises through tax incentives and easy credit facilities which can be extremely beneficial for the overall development of the country.
Government needs to promote industries in its SEZ (Special Economic Zone) which actually provide job to the inhabitants in and around that place rather than causing mass relocation of people from other states for those jobs. Sectors like manufacturing can provide mass employment and hence they should be given priority in SEZs.


India has to eradicate poverty, corruption and bureaucracy from every corner of this country.
We need to transform and restructure our government also along with economic policies. This can only happen with the valuable effort of every individual; the minimal one can do is exercise his fundamental right to vote and elect his leaders more judiciously, unruffled by trivialities of religion and caste. Today more than half of the population does not exercise its voting right, and majority of these people not voting belong to the educated and self-sufficient lot who show their unconcern towards their fundamental right for petty reasons.
India needs a government which is sincere and committed in providing health, education and physical infrastructure to all its citizens.


India needs to cover several miles more before it can be really proud of itself.
To continue the existing growth momentum and meet the ambitious expectations of millions of eyes all around, it needs a real inclusive and holistic growth which would make it a country free from corruption, illiteracy, and poverty
It’s only then can we have a TRUE SHINING INDIA, an India which Gandhi dreamt of, Bhagat Singh and millions of unnamed freedom fighters sacrificed their life for.

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